The U.S. Treasury yield curve, one of the most reliable signals of recession, is flashing red again. As of March 2025, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields remains inverted ...

The US curve bear steepened as 10y Treasury yields rose towards 4.4% (initially) in the wake of Trump’s tariff announcements. The EUR curve also steepened, but here it was more the rates markets’ ...